Aeolus Capital Management Ltd., the specialist insurance-linked securities (ILS) and reinsurance investment manager, has announced a new research collaboration with Cornell University’s Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, aimed at improving the modelling of hurricane tracks and assessing landfall risk with greater accuracy.The partnership will focus on a quantitative study of hurricane landfall risk, led by Dr.Pete Dailey, Head of Research at Aeolus, who is a renowned expert within climate catastrophe model development and analytics.Moreover, the project will utilise an open-source hurricane hazard model developed by Dr.

Jonathan Lin, Assistant Professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell, to investigate how key climate and weather factors influence the behavior and potential impact of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin.A key feature of the research is the application of counterfactual analysis (CFA), a methodology that simulates alternative versions of past hurricane events to evaluate “what-if” scenarios.Dr.

Pete Dailey, commented: “We’re delighted to work with Dr.Lin to develop innovative applications of his hurricane track and intensity model.Counterfactual analysis (“CFA”) considers scenarios that run counter to what actually played out in a real-world event.

“CFA asks “what if” these scenarios had played out, or were to, in the coming season?”.Dailey, continued: “Today’s weather models produce ensemble forecast for storms like Katrina, Harvey and Ian which contain hundreds of counterfactuals, some stronger and costlier than the real events.Applying CFA helps us think critically about risk and better plan for an uncertain future.” Dr.

Jonathan Lin, added: “We are thrilled to kick off this collaboration with Aeolus as part of a broader effort to strengthen academia–private industry partnerships.Together, we aim to advance our understanding of tropical cyclone risk in both today’s climate and in future climate scenarios.” He continued: “We believe that close cooperation between academic researchers and private industry leaders is essential to tackling the complex challenges of climate risk.” Clearly, this research project has the potential to deliver meaningful value to Aeolus and its clients in helping to inform and refine its view of risk, while any research output will also have benefits for the broader ILS and re/insurance industry.By improving the precision of hurricane landfall risk estimates and testing the impact of plausible alternative storm scenarios, the research could enhance risk selection, portfolio construction, and capital allocation..

All of our Artemis Live insurance-linked securities (ILS), catastrophe bonds and reinsurance can be accessed online.Our can be subscribed to using the typical podcast services providers, including Apple, Google, Spotify and more.