Hurricane Isaias has weakened to a strong tropical storm as of 13:00 Sunday BST, with sustained winds now down to 65mph and the storm expected to rake the Florida east coast, perhaps making a full landfall, while a landfall further up the U.S.eastern seaboard remains firmly in Isaias sights.As we explained last week, .

But there had been significant uncertainty over the storms ability to get past mountainous Hispaniola and through a region experiencing strong wind shear with enough circulation left to still make hurricane strength before heading towards the Bahamas and Florida.Hurricane Isaias is clearly resilient as it managed to achieve this, reaching category 1 hurricane strength and strengthened slightly to reach sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts as it headed through the Bahamas on a path that at the time was projected to impact the Florida coastline, potentially near to the Miami region.But Isaias weakened due to shear and while yesterday evening forecasters believed it could regain its hurricane strength before coming closest to landfall in Florida, hurricane Isaias failed to do this and now has 65mph winds as it nears the Florida seaboard.

Hurricane Isaias did not experience the environmental conditions most conducive to intensification on its travels, despite the warm sea surface temperatures it has travelled across, as wind shear remained relatively high and the storm found itself remaining lop-sided as a result.The storm has been fed drier air from high pressure to its east, which also affected its ability to intensify and actually resulted in a little weakening.Once alongside Florida and as it moves further north storm Isaias could still emerge back over the warm Gulf Stream and with wind shear interaction lessened there is a slight chance of Isaias increasing in strength and perhaps making it back to a cat 1 hurricane before making a second landfall further north on the U.S.

eastern seaboard, likely in Georgia or South Carolina.The forecast shows now tropical storm Isaias raking the Florida coastline, perhaps making landfall or perhaps the eye could just stay offshore today.Then heading north to make a second landfall.

North of Florida though, with a slight chance of some intensification as it emerges back over the Gulf stream, the insurance and reinsurance market may need to be on watch for losses in states along the eastern seaboard.But how long hurricane Isaias interacts with Florida for could also affect its ability to intensify further as well.Whenever a hurricane comes close to Florida it puts the insurance-linked securities (ILS) and catastrophe bond market on watch, given the significant concentration of reinsurance exposure in the state.

Coming soon after a mid-year renewal season when rates were very attractive to underwrite Florida reinsurance business, but hedging capacity wasn’t always readily available, it will be interesting to see whether some quoting activity breaks out for instruments such as industry loss warranties (ILW’s) or last minute parametric reinsurance and retro coverage.However, we’re told live cat quoting activity has been incredibly quiet, as the forecast didn’t suggest the significant intensification and the market appeared to be focusing on the potential for a relatively low, perhaps in the low single digit billions of dollars, industry loss, our sources said on Saturday.Now, with Isaias weakened and only set to approach the Florida coast at tropical storm strength, the expectation for industry losses has dropped further, we’re told today.

The NHC says that tropical storm conditions are now being experienced close to the east coast of Florida.In its latest update the NHC said: SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…26.5N 79.5W ABOUT 40 MI…70 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 155 MI…245 KM SSE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.42 INCHES SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for… * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Hallandale Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * North of South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ———————- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 79.5 West.Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).

A general northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a north-northwestward motion tonight.A turn toward the north and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed.On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the east coast of Florida today through late tonight.

On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern mid-Atlantic states.Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.During the past couple of hours, a wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) was reported at Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, and a Weatherflow observing site at Junno Beach Pier, Florida, measured a wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide… North Miami Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL…1-3 ft Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL…2-4 ft Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC…1-3 ft Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC…2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas through this morning.Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight.

These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina within the warning area on Monday.Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in South and North Carolina beginning Monday night and Tuesday.RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban flooding along the East Coast of the United States.Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES: The potential for a couple tornadoes will begin along coastal South Carolina during the late afternoon and evening on Monday, spreading across eastern North Carolina on Monday night.You can see a forecast intensity model run for hurricane Isaias from TropicalTidbits.com below: Track the on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges and any meaningful storms form.———————————————————————.All of our Artemis Live insurance-linked securities (ILS), catastrophe bonds and reinsurance can be accessed online.

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