A severe weather outbreak across the US midwest over the last few days is likely to have created more than $5 billion in losses for the insurance and reinsurance industry, perhaps making this outbreak the largest severe weather loss event of 2025 so far, according to BMS Group Senior Meteorologist Andrew Siffert.At least 25 deaths have been reported along with dozens of injuries as tornadoes tore across Kentucky and Missouri on May 15th and 16th, with a number of EF2 and 3 confirmed tornadoes and one that it’s considered possible may be upgraded to EF4.Particularly damaging tornadoes were seen in Laurel County, Kentucky causing a number of deaths and in St Louis, Missouri were more deaths have been confirmed and officials said more than 5,000 buildings have been damaged.There were also confirmed tornadoes in Arkansas, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey and Wisconsin, during the severe weather outbreak.

In addition, large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall were also experienced across swathes of the midwestern states.Posting on LinkedIn, Andrew Siffert from insurance and reinsurance brokerage BMS, explained the meteorological setup.“Over the last few weeks, an omega block has controlled much of the weather pattern across the U.S., which has limited severe weather across much of the Central and Northern Plains, increasing the wildfire concern over the region,” Siffert wrote.

“With the breakdown of this omega block, the severe weather season is back.There will likely be three weeks of heightened severe weather, with a series of storm systems adding to the insurance industry’s losses in 2025.” Siffert highlighted that this could have been one of the most costly events seen so far this year.

“After a relatively quiet few weeks of severe weather across the U.S., severe weather is back with what is likely the most significant outbreak of severe weather that will cost the insurance industry over $5B+ in damages, making it likely the most costly severe weather event so far in 2025 after more severe weather damages occur today as severe weather moves over an even more populated area along the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio River Valley,” he explained.Prior to this outbreak, US severe weather insured losses were running at around $15 billion, Siffert said, which was around the average for the last ten years.“However, the losses over the last few days will significantly increase this total, likely over $5B+, making it the largest severe weather loss in 2025,” he continued.

Adding, “One can already understand the overall impact on the insurance industry by looking at the number of power outages with over 900K customers without power.The total number of severe weather reports over the last few days, 1,237, is comparable to the outbreak from 3/14 – 3/16.” Siffert further explained, “According to our partners, Canopy Weather, over 5K homes have been affected, allowing for a billion-dollar event in itself.However, with much attention focused on the tornado damage, the insurance industry can’t lose sight of the fact that hail will also be costly, adding to the billion-dollar loss estimate.

Over the last two days, 118 large hail events (2”+) have been observed.” , with even the inflation adjusted number running close to the 100 percentile..As Siffert said, there is a risk of more severe weather over the coming days and weeks, given the meteorological setup.

In fact, a tornado outbreak has been underway overnight Sunday into the early hours of Monday, with Colorado, Oklahoma and Kansas all affected.More tornadoes have been reported overnight, with some damage to properties seen in areas including the town of Plevna.Convective weather is likely to continue overnight in the currently affected regions and the SPC gives an enhanced risk warning for more severe and convective storms over the next few days, which could bring further impacts and therefore insurance claims as well.

With numerous aggregate reinsurance or retrocession contracts, as well as aggregate catastrophe bonds, seeing their annual risk periods reset at the mid-year renewals, these losses could affect some of those arrangements, elevating the chances of losses being faced by risk capital providers, traditional or alternative.There are already a number of aggregate cat bonds either deemed at risk of attaching, or that have already attached to some degree.So this recent severe weather and any more that brings damaging impacts over the coming days and weeks could erode aggregate deductibles further, or extend losses against exposed positions..

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