New York, NY (Jan.8, 2025) – Eurasia Group has released its annual Top Risks report, forecasting the political risks most likely to play out in 2025.Country-specific addendums for Canada, Europe, Brazil, and Japan further illustrate how global risks play out in different parts of the world, with specific implications for governments and businesses.

Top Global Risks 2025 We are heading back to the law of the jungle.A world where the strongest do what they can, while the weakest are condemned to suffer what they must.And the former – whether states, companies, or individuals – can’t be trusted to act in the interest of those they have power over.

It’s not a sustainable trajectory, and it leads to a “G-Zero world” in which no one power or group of powers is both willing and able to drive a global agenda and maintain international order.That global leadership deficit is growing critically dangerous.In 2025, this is a recipe for endemic geopolitical instability that will weaken the world’s security and economic architecture, create new and expanding power vacuums, embolden rogue actors, and increase the likelihood of accidents, miscalculation, and conflict.

The risk of a generational world crisis, even a new global war, is higher than at any point in our lifetimes.The central problem facing the global order is that core international institutions – the United Nations Security Council, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and so on – no longer reflect the underlying balance of global power.This is a geopolitical recession, a “bust cycle” in international relations that can be traced back to three causes.

To read more, download the Top Risks report from Eurasia Group.Implications For Canada Canada benefited for decades from an international order conducive to its interests and values.Under the protective umbrella of the United States, Canadians enjoyed freer trade with their neighbour to the south and influence in the multilateral institutions – the UN, the G7, and NATO, among others – that set the global agenda.

Canadian officials moved confidently through a world where might did not make right, where democracy, human rights, and the rule of law steadily advanced, and in which they enjoyed privileged relations with the world’s democratic superpower.In 2025 it will become clear that we are in a new era of global politics: a G-Zero world in which no one power or group of powers is willing and able to drive a global agenda and maintain international order.That global leadership deficit will be exacerbated by an ongoing geopolitical recession – a “bust cycle” in international relations in which core international institutions no longer reflect the underlying balance of global power.

The G-Zero leadership deficit means the prospects for peaceful reform or renewal of the global order are slim.Combined with the mismatch between global power and institutions, it’s a recipe for endemic geopolitical instability.That’s why “The G-Zero wins” is Eurasia Group’s Top Risk #1 for 2025.

A likely new Conservative government as well as Canadian businesses will need to navigate a much more dangerous global environment.For a country used to following rules and often taking its own security for granted, the stark realities of G-Zero will be a rude awakening.Ottawa has already had a taste of what to expect amid allegations of foreign interference by China and India and, more recently, new tariff threats from US President-elect Donald Trump.

Here are some of the key takeaways from this year’s top risks for Canada and Canadians: For more information and additional Canada-specific risks and takeaways, download the Implications For Canada addendum from Eurasia Group.About the Report Top Risks is Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year.This year’s report was published on 6 January 2025.

For more information, click here.About Eurasia Group Eurasia Group is the world’s leading global political risk research and consulting firm.Since 1998, we have helped clients make informed business decisions in countries where understanding the political landscape is critical.

Our research analysts are trained social scientists with post-graduate degrees, extensive professional experience, and a diverse range of language capabilities.Headquartered in New York, we also have offices in Washington, DC, San Francisco, London, São Paulo, and Singapore, as well as a vast network of experts around the world.For more information, please visit www.eurasiagroup.net.

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