CoreLogic has now updated its insurance market loss estimate for hurricane Helene to include losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), now putting the total in a range from $10.5 billion to as much as $17.5 billion.Initially, .In its latest update, the company has expanded the impact reach to includes losses suffered across 16 states.As a result, the wind only private insurance market loss is now put in a range from $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion.

Adding to the private insured losses CoreLogic now breaks out flood policies, saying it expects another $1.5 billion to $4.5 billion of privately insured flood losses.On FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), CoreLogic estimates a loss of between $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion.Which therefore results in the estimate for the total public and private insurance industry loss being in a range from $10.5 billion to $17.5 billion.

Notably, the estimate for the NFIP suggests that if the upper-end of CoreLogic’s estimate is reached, at up to $6.5 billion, this could bring the FloodSmart Re catastrophe bonds into play., reinsurance coverage for the NFIP would begin to attach at $6 billion thanks to a higher-risk Class C tranche of the $450 million FloodSmart Re Ltd.(Series 2022-1) issuance.

After that, additional FloodSmart Re catastrophe bonds would begin to attach only when the NFIP loss total reached $7 billion.At the same time, a loss event of $7 billion or greater is required for the NFIP’s traditional reinsurance to attach, at which level it would be a top-4 NFIP flood loss event., there were some nerves beginning to emerge among sources over hurricane Helene’s potential to attach certain reinsurance or insurance-linked securities (ILS) contracts, with the NFIP’s cat bonds among them.

As yet there is no visibility of the claims burden faced by FEMA’s NFIP, after the catastrophic flooding from hurricane Helene that extended from landfall storm surge impacts in Florida right up to devastating rainfall linked flooding in western North Carolina.On top of the insured losses estimated by CoreLogic, the company has also highlighted the flood insurance protection gap, saying that uninsured flood losses from Helene could be between $20 billion and $30 billion.“When intense storm surge and flooding events, like Hurricane Helene, reach regions that are infrequently affected by natural hazards, we can expect to see damage to homes without flood insurance coverage.

The fact that so much damage was concentrated outside the Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs) makes it challenging to realize the full extent of impact to uninsured homeowners,” explained Jon Schneyer, Director of Catastrophe Response at CoreLogic.“Thankfully FEMA’s NFIP is expected to provide up to $6.5 billion of insurance for the recovery efforts, which will help bring much needed recovery aid to the affected areas.” – .– Hurricane Helene private/public insured losses likely at least in higher single-digit billions: Aon.

– .– Hurricane Helene insurance industry loss estimated close to $6.4bn by KCC.– .

– Hurricane Helene floods over 100k buildings, at least 10k to over 5 feet: ICEYE.– .– Florida reinsurance dependency in focus after Helene, with $5bn+ loss expected: AM Best.

– .– Hurricane Helene private insurance loss seen mid-to-high single-digit billions: Bowen, Gallagher Re.– .

– Hurricane Helene insured wind/surge property loss in Florida/Georgia initially said $3bn – $5bn: CoreLogic.– .– Hurricane Helene landfall at Cat 4 140mph winds, Tampa Bay sees historic surge flooding.

– .– Minimal to no cat bond impact expected from hurricane Helene if track unchanged: Plenum..All of our Artemis Live insurance-linked securities (ILS), catastrophe bonds and reinsurance can be accessed online.

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