Hurricane Erin is now in the Atlantic, notably the first tropical storm to achieve hurricane status .Catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities fund manager Twelve Securis has highlighted that there is a strong consensus among the models that Erin will stay far enough away from the US coastline to avoid any significant impacts.The latest advisory from the US National Hurricane Center states that, “Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next two to three days, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane during the weekend.” The NHC’s forecast advisory shows hurricane Erin has the potential to become a major Category 3 or low Category 4 hurricane within around 72 hours, with sustained winds currently expected to reach over 130 mph.

But the model consensus continues to be for hurricane Erin to track across the Atlantic to the north of the Caribbean and then curve northwards, heading up between Bermuda and the US coastline.A few days ago, a number of the models were suggesting a very close passage to Bermuda for hurricane Erin, which put the insurance, reinsurance and ILS community on the island on watch.But as this week has passed, forecast models have indicated a slightly more southerly passage and a more westerly shift in the curvature to the north, while the forecasted curve has also tightened somewhat, which hopefully means hurricane Erin remains well-offshore of both Bermuda and the United States (although some uncertainty remains at this stage).

The latest NHC forecast cone can be seen below: Insurance-linked securities investment manager Twelve Securis has commented on the current outlook for hurricane Erin, as of Friday afternoon.“Erin is forecast to track north of the northern Caribbean leeward Islands, before turning northwards late on Sunday / during Monday and then tracking between the east coast of the US and Bermuda mid-next week,” the ILS manager explained.“Erin’s forecast has shifted slightly further westward, closer to the US coastline, over the past few days due to a slower than anticipated intensification and a more west/west-south position as Erin crossed the Atlantic.

“There does however remain a strong consensus from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), forecast models, and expert commentary, that Erin will stay far enough away from the US coastline to avoid any significant impacts,” Twelve Securis further stated.At this stage, unless forecasts change materially, that is the expected outlook into early next week, with hurricane Erin expected to be turning north by Monday.The forecasts will need watching though, as any further shift westwards in hurricane Erin’s direction of travel could bring the storm closer to the US, while any shifts south in the track could endanger parts of the Caribbean or Bahamas, or a tighter curve could again raise concerns for Bermuda.

That said, the model consensus is for both the US coast and Bermuda to be missed at this time (very few model runs indicate any concern at this time), which will hopefully remain the state of play early next week.Should the outlook for hurricane Erin’s forecast deteriorate in any way, we will update you next week.Track the on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges..

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