The Colorado State University (CSU) tropical meteorology team has lowered its forecast for the slightly on all counts, citing strong observed and forecast Caribbean wind shear as an inhibitor to Atlantic hurricane activity, but continuing to predict an above-normal level of activity.Despite dropping the forecast by one storm, one hurricane and one major hurricane, the Colorado State University team still cautions that its forecast is calling for above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity, with the anticipated lack of El Nino conditions over the coming months one reason.In its previous update, the Colorado State University (CSU) forecasters called for 17 named tropical storms to form during the 2025 hurricane season in the Atlantic, with up to 9 of these becoming hurricanes and as many as 4 reaching major hurricane strength at Category 3 or higher.Now, as of today’s updated forecast, the numbers have dropped to 16 named tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes to form.

Previously the group had also called forecast that the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index would be around 155 for this hurricane season.Now, that has fallen to an ACE of 140, but notably with still 139 of those ACE index points still to come through the remainder of the season.With three named tropical storms already observed, the CSU forecast for the remainder of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is for 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes to form.

It’s important to note that storm numbers do not necessarily mean an impactful season, with it being the direct storms travel in and whether they make landfall that really matters to insurance, reinsurance and ILS market participants.Summarising the latest forecast, the CSU team said, “We have decreased our forecast slightly and now call for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season.The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear.

High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons.However, we also anticipate the tropical Pacific to be characterized by ENSO neutral conditions.Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time.

A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.

Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.” Perhaps notable for constituents in the reinsurance, insurance-linked securities (ILS) and catastrophe bond market, the CSU team’s forecast for landfall probabilities have decreased somewhat.With landfalls what really matter for driving meaningful insurance market losses, with landfalls in regions of high exposure concentration most pertinent to the cat bond, ILS and reinsurance market, it’s worth noting that the reduction is for the remainder of the season from July 8th so may just be due to the shortening of the forecast window.CSU now gives a 48% probability that a major Category 3 or greater hurricane makes landfall in the United States (down from 51%), a 25% probability for a major Category 3 or greater hurricane making landfall on the east coast of the United States including Florida (down from 26%), and a 31% probability for a major Category 3 or greater hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast (down from 33%), all of which remain above the long-term averages.

The probability of a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean during the 2025 tropical storm season was previously put at 56%, but has now been reduced to 53% which is again still higher than the long-term average.Putting the reduced forecast numbers from CSU alongside the others we track, now gives us an average for the 2025 hurricane season of 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes and now 3 major hurricanes (down from 4), with ACE slightly lower as well at 141.CSU’s forecast comes , also lowering its forecast for storm, hurricane and major hurricane numbers, while dropping its forecast for US hurricane landfalls back to 2.

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