Broking giant Aon has estimated that global insured catastrophe losses amounted to at least $20 billion in the first quarter of 2026, 6% above the 21st-century average, which came off the back of an economic toll of $37 billion, down sharply from $113 billion in the same period of 2025.As per Aon, economic losses of $37 billion marked the lowest first-quarter total since 2015 and was 43% below the 21st-century Q1 average.According to the broker’s latest Global Catastrophe Recap, the largest contributors to the overall insurance toll were winter storms and severe convective storm (SCS) outbreaks across the United States.Aon’s report also noted that natural catastrophes in the United States accounted for more than 75% of global insured losses in Q1 2026, reaching approximately $16 billion.

The broker also observed that the global insurance protection gap remains very low at approximately 46%, as a result of major activity occurring in the well-developed US market.“Flooding and severe convective storms (SCS) caused the highest economic losses during Q1, with SCS highlighted as the most damaging peril for insurers – especially in the U.S., where the single costliest SCS event (March 10-12) resulted in a $5 billion economic loss and $4 billion in insured loss,” Aon explained.In addition, Winter Storm Fern also impacted the central and eastern United States in January, bringing freezing rain, heavy snowfall, severe thunderstorms and record-setting, prolonged cold temperatures.

The winter storm caused more than 130 fatalities, while economic and insured losses reached $4.6 billion and $3.5 billion respectively, making Fern potentially the fourth-costliest US winter storm on record, Aon noted.Aon’s report also outlined that 12 events each caused more than $1 billion in economic losses during the period under review (long-term average: nine), while five events each generated more than $1 billion in insured losses (long-term average: four).Furthermore, natural disaster events caused more than 1,640 fatalities in Q1 2026, in comparison to 6,300 in the same period of the previous year.

The majority of fatalities resulted from flooding events.As well as this, Q1 2026 saw Portugal record its costliest insurance event on record, through Windstorm Kristin, which was estimated to have caused a €0.9 billion ($1 billion) in insured losses.“When combined with flood losses, 2026 will be the first year Portugal’s annual insured losses exceed €1 billion ($1.2 billion).

Elsewhere, Daytona Beach, Florida, recorded its lowest ever temperature of 19°F (-7.2°C) on February 1, and in a March 10 SCS event in Illinois, hail up to 6.6 in (16.5 cm) was recorded,” Aon added.Michal Lörinc, head of catastrophe insight for Aon, commented: “Flooding in Western and Southern Europe, and severe storm events in the U.S., accounted for the majority of the first quarter global natural hazard losses.“In response, we continue to update our capabilities to further address these and other perils – for instance, with the launch of our Automated Event Response service for U.S.

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